D. Shanker¹ , M. Singh² , S. Mohamed ALI³

¹Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Uttarakhand, India
²Galgotias University, Department of Computing Science and Engineering, Greater Noida, Uttar Pradesh, India
³CTBTO Preparatory Commission, Vienna, Austria

Abstract:

Seismic threat and related earthquake engineering dedications usually require evaluation of return periods or probabilities of exceedance of specific levels of design load criteria or extremal safety conditions. For this purpose, a comprehensive treatment of earthquake hazard estimation, Gumbel’s type-I extreme event probability distribution have been used to estimate designed earthquake recurrence times using annual extreme magnitudes. The Hindukush–Pamir Himalaya region, bounded by 25–40°N and 65–85°E, have been selected for quantification of future earthquake hazard and risk. The results of analyses have enabled earthquake hazard that exists in the Hindukush-Pamir Himalayan belt to be quantified in terms of recurrence periods and probabilities of occurrence of earthquake of any given magnitude. Seventeen years of complete and reliable earthquake data from June 13, 1999 to March 12, 2015 have been taken from the International Monitoring System (IMS) network setup by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO), Vienna Austria. Study indicates that the most probable largest annual earthquakes are close to 5.5. The most probable earthquakes that may occur in an interval of 50 years are estimated as 6.6. The results are potentially useful for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in the region.