K. El-Baz¹

¹American University in Cairo, Cairo, Egypt

Abstract:

The refusal of the three Middle Eastern Annex II states that have not ratified the (CTBT), namely Egypt, Israel and Iran has held hostage the CTBT entry to force to political bargains based on cost-benefit approaches. All three countries do not have strategic reasons not to ratify the CTBT, but they linkage ratification to issues, outside the CTBT realm. To accurately diagnose the current status quo on the CTBT ratification, the obstruction of the ratification in the region should be best described as a symptom. Tackling the symptoms of any patient could never be considered as a full diagnosis for the patient. The proposed paper seeks to analyze some of the core barriers that led to the current status quo for a more accurate diagnosis. The real challenge that faces the ratification of the CTBT (as well as the establishment of MEWMDFZ) is the absence of minimal favorable conditions.The purpose of this abstract is to go beyond the regional political official reasons giving by these three countries, which are mostly based on security concerns, and offer alternative, such as regional cooperation based on win-win scenarios to consolidate confidence building among the parties as a milestone for a CTBT ratification.