J.O. Ross1 , L. Ceranna1
1Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR), Hanover, Germany
Forward simulations of the atmospheric dispersion from sites of particular interest are regularly performed at the Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe (BGR), the German National Data Centre (NDC). Since 2012 four forecasts per day are performed with the Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model HYSPLIT (National Ocean and Atmosphere Administration) and GFS (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) meteorological data for potential releases from the known Democratic People's Republic of Korea test site. The forecasts are used to assess the plume propagation patterns and to predict which International Monitoring System (IMS) radionuclide stations could become sensitive in case of an event. The simulated concentrations at IMS radionuclide stations in the region are analysed for the whole set of more than 5000 simulations. Seasonal variations of the detection chances are investigated. The results are compared with the operational Source Receptor Sensitivity fields provided by the International Data Centre in backward mode. In addition, for RN 38,Takasaki (Japan) backtracking simulations with European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast analysis data in 0.2° horizontal resolution are performed for selected samples in order to determine the source regions of the most dominant background detections. Furthermore a special focus lies on the time periods following the announced nuclear test explosions in January and September 2016.